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SpaceX needs good weather for tonight’s crewed launch — so how’s it looking?

The Ax-4 crew heading to the ISS.
The Ax-4, crew with (from left to right) Tibor Kapu of Hungary, ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) astronaut Shubhanshu Shukla, former NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson, and ESA (European Space Agency) astronaut Sławosz Uznański-Wiśniewski of Poland. SpaceX

SpaceX, Axiom Space, and NASA are gearing up for a crewed rocket launch in the coming hours, but the mission needs decent weather for it to get underway. So how’s it looking?

Well, following a number of delays over the last couple of weeks due to weather conditions and technical issues, SpaceX looks as ready as ever to blast four Ax-4 crewmembers toward the International Space Station (ISS) from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

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The Ax-4 launch team is currently targeting 2:31 a.m. ET on Wednesday (11:31 p.m. PT on Tuesday) for the launch of Axiom Space’s fourth private astronaut mission to the orbital outpost, and SpaceX’s first crewed launch since March.

Recent data from the 45th Weather Squadron, which provides detailed assessments for air and space operations in the U.S., suggests there’s a 90% chance of the Falcon 9 leaving the launchpad on time on Wednesday morning — barring any last minute technical issues, that is.

In its most recent assessment for the Ax-4 mission, the 45th Weather Squadron said that while there was a small risk of coastal showers overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, they’re likely to be isolated.

It said that overall there is only a 10% probability of violating weather constraints, giving the Ax-4 crewmembers an excellent chance of finally beginning their voyage to the space station.

If you’d like to watch a livestream of the liftoff and early part of the mission, check out this Digital Trends page , which has all the relevant information as well as an embedded video player for easy viewing.

The Ax-4 crew includes individuals from India, Poland, and Hungary, representing each country’s first mission to the space station and only their second government-sponsored human spaceflight in more than 40 years. The fourth crewmember is retired NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson, who now works for Axiom Space, which is organizing the privately funded mission.

The crew will spend about two weeks on the orbital facility, living alongside the current inhabitants while carrying out around 60 scientific experiments in microgravity conditions.

Trevor Mogg
Contributing Editor
Not so many moons ago, Trevor moved from one tea-loving island nation that drives on the left (Britain) to another (Japan)…
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